Is Baccarat Rigged? Cheating Risks at Casinos and Live Tables

If you have played baccarat many times without winning and felt that your losses were too lopsided to be chance, you may have wondered whether the casino was cheating.

What You Will Learn

• Cheating is extremely unlikely at both land-based casinos and live baccarat tables, because the small extra profit is not worth what would be lost if it were discovered.
• Baccarat has a house edge, so the casino makes a profit without having to cheat.
• In 2022, the media reported a fraud case at a land-based casino in South Korea in which about 2.51 billion South Korean won was allegedly taken from players.

This article takes about 12 minutes to read.

Could a Casino Be Cheating at Baccarat?

It would be a major scandal if a casino cheated, deliberately made players lose and took large sums from them. But is this something that could actually happen?

Baccarat at Land-Based Casinos

A land-based casino is one with physical premises, such as those in Las Vegas, Macau and Manila. It is hard to believe that such casinos cheat at baccarat. The main reason is that the casino would lose far too much if cheating were discovered, while the extra profit it could gain by cheating is small, so the numbers simply do not add up.

At land-based casinos, the baccarat shoe (the holder from which the cards are dealt) is usually transparent and only lets the dealer take out one card at a time. Even if a dealer somehow knew the values of the face-down cards, cheating would be very easy to detect.

Many casinos today also use cards with embedded electronic tags, so if a dealer tried to cheat on their own, the casino would be alerted immediately. The situation would be different if the casino itself were involved, but a casino has no reason to set up systems that make cheating difficult and then cheat anyway.

What a casino stands to lose if cheating is discovered goes beyond its own business. Rumors could spread to other casinos in the same city, and nearby casinos that lose customers could sue for damages (this is explained in detail in “If Cheating Is Discovered at a Land-Based Casino” below). The risk of cheating is therefore very high.

Baccarat also has a built-in house edge of about 1.06% on Banker, about 1.24% on Player, about 10.36% on the Pair side bet and about 14.36% on Tie, so the casino makes a profit without having to cheat. Dealers, for their part, receive tips from players as part of their income, so making players lose does not benefit a dealer personally either.

In baccarat, cards are dealt to two hands called “Player” and “Banker,” and you bet on which hand will win. “Player” is simply the name of a betting option and does not refer to you. From here on, we refer to the two hands as the Player hand and the Banker hand.

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Live Baccarat

With live baccarat, there is almost no benefit to cheating in the first place, because the losses from being caught far outweigh any extra fees that cheating could bring in.

Suppose, for example, that Evolution, a major supplier of live casino games, signs a contract with an online casino so that its live games can be played there. Evolution then receives a fee equal to a fixed percentage of the casino’s revenue from those games.

If cheating were discovered, however, the company would lose its licenses in multiple jurisdictions and its business partners, a loss far greater than any increase in fees. Evolution therefore has no reason to cheat in order to collect more money.

If cheating came to light and players stopped playing altogether, every casino using the games could take legal action against the provider. In that sense, cheating at live games would be all risk and no benefit.

Games offered at online casinos are also subject to thorough measures to prevent cheating. To begin with, providers that supply live games, like the casino sites themselves, must obtain a license from a government regulator that authorizes them to operate casino games.

To obtain and keep a license, a company is checked in detail for safeguards that prevent its games from being manipulated and for any links between the company, its owners and affiliates, and organized crime. A licensed company has therefore passed this review and remains under ongoing supervision.

The games are also regularly tested and audited by independent third parties, so any cheating would be likely to come to light.

The most important question for a live game is whether it is truly live. Cheating would be easy if an operator streamed recorded footage in which the Player hand wins whenever most of the money is on the Banker hand. To show that the stream is genuinely live and reassure viewers, live baccarat dealers interact with players, for example by responding in the chat.

Given the licensing requirements and independent testing, it is fair to say that cheating at live baccarat is practically impossible.

A Real Case of Baccarat Cheating: The 2.51 Billion Won Fraud at a South Korean Land-Based Casino

The previous section explained that cheating at baccarat is unlikely because the return is small relative to the risk. On the other hand, when cheating promises a large enough return, some casinos do go ahead with it. In 2022, the media reported that cheating had actually taken place at Golden Casino, located in the Inter-Burgo Hotel in Daegu, South Korea.

In this case, the casino is suspected of manipulating the outcome of baccarat games played by three foreign players between May 2012 and April 2014 and taking a total of 2.51 billion won from them. According to reports, several of the casino’s managers and dealers were charged in 2014.

The casino allegedly took a total of about 2.51 billion won.

Source: AP Shinmun (AP신문), “검찰 ‘사기도박’ 혐의 수사 골든카지노, 문 닫는 사태 맞을 수도” (May 2, 2022) (headline in English: “Prosecutors investigate Golden Casino on ‘fraudulent gambling’ charges; casino may face closure”; quotation translated from Korean)

In May 2022, prosecutors were also reported to have raided the same casino over the fraudulent gambling allegations. The regulator said it would consider administrative measures, such as suspending the casino’s operations, if the facts were confirmed.

According to reports, the scheme relied on cards stacked in a prearranged order, so the dealer knew which card would come next and could switch the order so that the cards went to whichever side the players would lose on.

Although the method was fairly crude, it took about two years before it was uncovered, which shows how hard this kind of cheating is to detect from the outside.

South Korea uses casinos to attract foreign tourists, and large casino resorts (so-called integrated resorts) have opened there as well. The fact that cheating took place even in a country that actively promotes casino tourism shows that players should always stay alert to the possibility of fraud.

Baccarat Cheating Methods Uncovered in Past Cases

Baccarat cheating takes many other forms as well, including schemes carried out by dealers acting alone, by players acting alone and by dealers and players working together.

• To repay his own debts, a dealer had accomplices play at his table while he was on duty and let them win, illegally taking money from the casino.
• A dealer conspired with a woman he was dating and stole from the casino by swapping the chips she held for higher-value chips.
• Specially treated cards were read with infrared light, and the card values were identified from the positions of marks shown on a monitor. The cards were then switched so that whichever hand had less money bet on it would win.
• A fully automated shoe, whose contents could not be seen, was rigged so that the operator could decide whether Banker or Player won.
• Shills were brought in to encourage other players to bet more money, increasing the casino’s profits.

All of these methods have actually been found at land-based casinos or illegal gambling venues, and some have occurred at licensed casinos. Cheating at live baccarat at online casinos, however, remains hard to imagine.

Baccarat Cheating That Could Happen: Hypothetical Cases

As explained at the start of this page, the chance of cheating is extremely low at both land-based casinos and live baccarat tables. Even so, it does no harm to keep the possibility in mind.

What Cheating at a Land-Based Casino Might Look Like

Because these are hypothetical cases, we also cover forms of cheating that are extremely unlikely but cannot be ruled out completely.

• A dealer teams up with a player and helps the player win, for example by illegally adding to their chips or misreporting the result of a hand. The player then gives the dealer half of the profit.

However, cards used for baccarat today often have embedded electronic tags, and surveillance cameras are running at all times, so this is unlikely to succeed.

• On the casino’s instructions, a dealer makes players lose by cheating, for example by switching cards.

This is the form most people picture when they think of cheating. It is also very risky, though, and there is little to gain from it in baccarat, where the house edge already leaves the casino with a profit.

• Touts approach well-dressed, wealthy-looking visitors in bar and club districts, ask whether they would like to play baccarat, and take them to an illegal gambling room. There, the visitor, who does not know how the game works, is cheated out of money, and the operators split the proceeds with the tout.

This is a method used by illegal gambling operations, not licensed casinos. It is not the kind of thing that happens at a licensed casino, but if you are ever invited to a place like this, the best way to protect yourself is to stay away.

What Cheating at Live Baccarat Might Look Like

Cheating at live baccarat would require a scheme on a much larger scale than at a land-based casino. We look at two scenarios.

If the online casino is behind it

• The casino sets up a baccarat table for its exclusive use, either on its own or with a provider’s help. It hires dealers willing to cheat and rigs the game so that whichever hand has less money bet on it wins. Because it would look suspicious if the side with less money always won, shills also place bets to make the results look natural. Players are allowed to win while their bets are small and are made to lose once they raise their bets, so that their win rate appears to be about even.

In this scenario, the independent testing agencies would at the very least have to know about the cheating and turn a blind eye to it. If the cheating came to light, everyone involved, including those agencies, would lose all credibility.

If the provider is behind it

• The method is the same as above; only the goal differs. The provider lets the side with less money bet on it win in order to build a track record showing that players have a low win rate, then uses that record to push up its fees when signing contracts with casinos.

The method stays the same no matter who is behind it, because the only way to profit illegally from baccarat is to make the side with less money bet on it win. The only difference is who benefits as a result.

As explained earlier, providers simply supply casino games and are paid the fee set in their contract, so beyond that fee it makes no difference to them how much the casino wins or loses. If a provider did cheat anyway, the natural explanation would be that it wanted additional payments from the casino.

In that case, however, the casino would have to know that the provider was cheating and accept those terms, and the independent testing agencies and government regulators would also have to be involved. In effect, this would require a worldwide criminal conspiracy in which players everywhere lost enormous sums, which makes it an implausible scenario.

What Happens If Baccarat Cheating Is Discovered?

What penalties would follow if cheating were discovered? Depending on what was done and the country, criminal charges are possible. This section looks at the consequences for licenses, business operations and claims for damages.

If Cheating Is Discovered at a Land-Based Casino

If cheating were discovered at a land-based casino, the following could happen.

• Land-based casinos also need a license that authorizes them to operate. If the casino itself led the cheating, rather than a dealer acting alone, the license is revoked, so the casino can no longer operate.
• Even if the license is not revoked, once rumors spread that the casino cheats, players stop coming, and the casino cannot stay in business.
• If this goes further and people start saying that cheating is rampant at the city’s casinos, players stop going to nearby casinos as well. Casinos that lose customers could then file lawsuits seeking damages.
• If a player cheats and makes an unfair profit, the casino can ban that player and also seek damages.
• If a dealer cheats and makes an unfair profit, the casino can dismiss that dealer and also seek damages.

If Cheating Is Discovered at Live Baccarat

If cheating were discovered at live baccarat at an online casino, the following could happen.

If the casino is behind it

If the casino led the cheating, the regulator would revoke its license, and the casino would lose its legal basis to operate. Providers would cancel their contracts so that they would not be drawn into the cheating by supplying an unlicensed casino. Players would lose trust in the casino as well, and with no one left to play, it would have to shut down.

If the provider is behind it

If cheating led by a provider were discovered, the provider would lose more than its license. Every casino it supplies would cancel its contract, and the results of its past independent testing would no longer be trusted. The business itself could not continue, so the impact would be on a completely different scale from a single land-based casino being caught.

Frequently Asked Questions About Baccarat Cheating

Where should I play baccarat if I want to play safely?

To play baccarat safely, choose an online casino that holds an official government-issued license and is regularly audited by independent testing agencies. The Malta Gaming Authority (MGA) license is known for especially strict review and supervision. The Curaçao license is widely used and well established. Holders of either license remain subject to ongoing audits after they are licensed.

Can anyone prove that baccarat is not rigged?

Live baccarat is played with real cards and a real dealer, so no random number generator (RNG) is used to deal the cards or decide the outcome. The only exception is the multiplier draw in games such as Lightning Baccarat, which uses an RNG. The companies that stream these games are licensed to operate them and are tested by independent testing agencies. The video streams also show the dealer’s hands, and systems that read barcodes printed on the cards to record each result are in place.

Absolute proof is difficult in some respects, but these technologies and audit systems are what support the claim that cheating is practically impossible. Checking that the provider is trustworthy is the best way to protect yourself.

Summary: Baccarat Cheating Is Not Worth the Risk and Rarely Happens

For a casino, cheating at baccarat is not worth the risk. The extra profit it could make by cheating is small compared with what it would lose if caught, and the house edge already leaves the casino with a profit over the long run.

That said, there have been reports of dealers at land-based casinos cheating on their own, and of entire casinos being involved in cheating. At present, however, there is no objective evidence of cheating at live baccarat, so the chance of it happening is extremely low.

When you see the Banker hand win 10 times in a row, you may be tempted to suspect cheating. Excluding ties, however, the Banker hand wins about 50.68% of the time, and the probability of 10 wins in a row is about 0.11%, or roughly 1 in 890. At a table that plays 1,500–2,000 rounds a day, that works out to about once a day. There is no need to worry unduly, so you can enjoy the game.