When you play baccarat, you will probably notice a grid-like chart on screen below the table. This is the baccarat scoreboard, which records the…
Baccarat Betting Strategy: Do Pros Exist and How Do They Bet?
Do professional baccarat players actually exist? This article looks at the structure of the game to see whether baccarat can support professionals in the way poker can.
We also cover the betting methods and bankroll management that experienced players use to avoid heavy losses, and what they change when they are not winning.
What You Will Learn
- A “professional” who earns a steady income from baccarat over the long run is hard to find, at least in the sense in which poker professionals exist.
- Experienced players who avoid heavy losses stick to four habits: treating the scoreboard roads as a record of past results, using betting systems to manage the swings in their balance, strictly keeping to their loss and win limits, and keeping their emotions under control.
This article takes about 14 minutes to read.
Contents
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Do Professional Baccarat Players Exist?
In reality, a “professional” who earns a steady income from baccarat over the long run is all but nonexistent.
Professionals exist in poker, where the skill of the players at the table decides the outcome, but baccarat is not played against other people. You play against the casino under a house edge that is fixed in advance, so the structure of the game makes it extremely difficult to win consistently over the long run.
Baccarat has a high return to player (RTP) to begin with. In 8-deck baccarat, the Banker hand has an RTP of about 98.94% and the Player hand about 98.76%, among the highest of any casino game. (The tie bet, which pays 8 to 1 so that a $10 bet wins $80, falls to about 85.64%, and the pair bets, which pay 11 to 1 so that a $10 bet wins $110, fall to about 89.64%.) Combining this high RTP with rebates or cashback can reduce your effective losses even further.
In baccarat, cards are dealt to two hands, called “Player” and “Banker,” and you bet on which of them will win. “Player” is simply the name of a bet and does not refer to you. In this article, we call them the Player hand and the Banker hand.
Rebates and cashback do not eliminate the house edge, however. They only reduce your effective losses.
Even so, while they may not be called professionals, some players do manage to avoid heavy losses at baccarat. Drawing on how these players bet, the following sections explain the strategies used by experienced baccarat players.
Betting Methods Used by Professional and Experienced Baccarat Players
Experienced players mainly rely on the following four betting and bankroll management methods. The first two are covered in this section, and the other two later in the article.
- Use Road Patterns to Guide Your Bets
- Make Use of Betting Systems
- Strictly Keep to Your Loss and Win Limits
- Keep Your Emotions Under Control
These methods can be combined. None of them changes your chance of winning or the house edge, however. Think of them as tools you combine to avoid heavy losses and to manage the swings in your balance.
Use Road Patterns to Guide Your Bets
Baccarat tables have a scoreboard, made up of roads, that records the results of previous hands.
Most live baccarat tables display five roads: the Big Road, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, Cockroach Pig and Bead Plate. The one players use most is the Big Road.
On the Big Road, each consecutive win by the Player hand or the Banker hand adds a circle below the previous one, and when the run ends, a new column starts. The roads make the sequence of past results visible, and players use them to decide whether to bet with the pattern or against it.
However, use the roads only as a reference and do not rely on them too much. The roads themselves have no power to change the RTP or the house edge. Think of them simply as a record that lets you follow the sequence of results.
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Alternating Wins: Ping Pong
Ping Pong (often called a chop) is the pattern that appears when the Player hand and the Banker hand win alternately. On the Big Road, the circles form a single horizontal row. Players who assume the pattern will continue usually bet on the Banker hand after a Player win and on the Player hand after a Banker win (although there is no guarantee that the pattern will continue).
Two Wins, Then One: The Two-and-One Pattern
The Two-and-One pattern is a repeating sequence in which one side wins twice in a row and the other side then wins once. Here too, players usually bet with the pattern on the assumption that it will continue (although there is no guarantee that it will).
Three or More Wins in a Row: Streaks
A streak is the pattern that appears when either the Player hand or the Banker hand keeps winning. On the Big Road, the circles form a single vertical column, so a long streak is often called a dragon (alternating results, by contrast, are often called a chop).
In this situation, many experienced players follow the streak, betting on the expectation that it will continue. Others bet against the pattern and back the opposite side.
With Ping Pong, the Two-and-One pattern and streaks alike, more players tend to bet with the pattern than against it. Betting with the pattern is popular because the wins keep coming for as long as the pattern continues, but the expected value of each bet is the same as when betting against it.
Make Use of Betting Systems
Another trait of experienced players is that they switch between betting systems to suit the situation.
A betting system is a method of raising and lowering your bet size according to the situation at the table so that you manage your bankroll to a plan. It cannot change your chance of winning on any single hand or the overall house edge, but by adjusting the size of your bets you can control the swings in your balance and build an approach such as accumulating small wins or recovering a run of losses with a single win.
There are many kinds of betting systems, and each one makes your balance shrink or grow at a different rate. Specific systems are covered later in the article.
Experienced players choose the betting system that fits the situation. Rather than sticking to one, it is a good idea to understand several.
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Three Common Betting Systems Used in Baccarat
The core of an approach that avoids heavy losses is bankroll management through a betting system.
None of these systems changes the house edge. Used well, however, they make it easier to control how quickly your bankroll shrinks, and they also help you stay calm.
Systems that change the bet size after a win or loss are usually explained using the Player bet. The reason is the 5% commission on Banker wins: a winning Banker bet pays 0.95 to 1, so a $10 bet wins $9.50, and there are situations where even a win does not fully recover your earlier losses. The Banker hand has the lower house edge, so with flat betting, where the bet size stays the same, betting on the Banker hand is not a problem.
On the other hand, the pair and tie bets are not suited to betting systems, because their RTP is much lower. Be wary of advice such as “this is how you should bet on the tie” that suggests the tie or side bets can give you an advantage.
Betting Method (1): The Paroli System (also called the reverse Martingale), Which Raises Bets During a Winning Streak
The Paroli system, also called the reverse Martingale system, follows a simple rule: double your bet after a win and return to your original bet after a loss. Starting with $1, you raise your bet to $2, $4 and $8 with each consecutive win.
Because your profit doubles with every consecutive win, this system pairs well with following streaks. Whenever the loss comes, the loss for that cycle is limited to your first bet, so you can try it even with a small bankroll.
The system also combines well with VIP programs and wagering rebates that pay more the more you wager. These reduce only your effective losses, though; they do not remove the house edge. Since you make a profit only when you win several hands in a row, the system succeeds relatively rarely. Decide in advance after how many consecutive wins you will lock in your profit.
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Betting Method (2): The 1-3-2-6 System, a Simple Four-Win Cycle
The 1-3-2-6 system changes your bet with each consecutive win in the order 1x, 3x, 2x and 6x your base bet. Starting with $5, you bet $5, then $15, then $10, then $30. If you lose, you start again from the beginning, and after four wins in a row you also reset.
After two consecutive wins, the cycle can no longer end in a loss, and four consecutive wins earn a profit of 12 units. From the second win onward, this makes it easier to build profit while limiting the risk of loss. Another practical advantage is that the system’s structure sets your profit target in advance.
Because the system always loses money unless you win at least twice in a row, losses pile up while a Ping Pong pattern continues. Set your loss limit before you start.
Betting Method (3): The Monte Carlo System, Managed with a Number Sequence
The Monte Carlo system uses a sequence of numbers to decide how much to bet.
Start with the sequence 1, 2, 3 and bet the sum of the leftmost and rightmost numbers (4 on the first bet).
If you win, cross out the leftmost and rightmost numbers (after the first bet, 2 remains). If you lose, add the amount you just bet to the right end of the sequence (after the first bet, the sequence becomes 1, 2, 3, 4). Keep going until one number or none remains.
Each win removes two numbers and each loss adds one, so the sequence itself gets shorter as long as you win more than one bet in three. A shorter sequence is not the same as a profit, however. If you clear the sequence completely, you finish with a profit, but if you stop with one number left, you may not have made any.
All of this assumes you manage to clear the sequence. During a losing streak, the sequence grows and your bets keep rising, and once you hit the table limit or run out of bankroll, the session ends with the sequence still on the page. That single blow produces a loss larger than all your earlier profit, so the overall house edge is no different from any other betting method.
The system also takes time to get used to. Some experienced players keep track in their heads, but at first, play with a pen and paper.
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Bankroll Management and Emotional Control to Avoid Heavy Losses in Baccarat
Strictly Keep to Your Loss and Win Limits
In baccarat, as in any form of gambling, the most important thing is bankroll management.
As in poker, neglecting bankroll management quickly leads to losses. For this reason, always set a loss limit and a win limit before you play baccarat.
For example, if you start with $100, you might quit while ahead once you are up $30 and stop once your balance falls below $50. You can also tie your limits to a betting system, such as locking in your profit after five consecutive wins with the Paroli system or cutting your losses after five consecutive losses with the Martingale system (doubling your bet after each loss).
If you tie your limits to a betting system, however, first calculate how much you will lose before you reach that limit. With the Martingale system starting at $1, your cumulative loss after five consecutive losses is $31 (2 to the 5th power minus 1), and your next bet is $32. With a $100 bankroll, after six consecutive losses (a cumulative $63), you can no longer place the next bet of $64. The table’s maximum bet imposes the same constraint, so any system that doubles the bet will eventually reach a point where it cannot continue.
Most important of all, stop playing the moment you reach either limit. If possible, request a withdrawal from the casino at that point.
Thoughts such as “the luck is on my side right now” or “I can win this loss back on the next hand” have no basis, because the result of each hand is independent. If you cannot stick to the rules you set, you will eventually suffer losses larger than you planned for.
To avoid losing all your earlier profit at once, be especially sure to keep to your loss limit.
Keep Your Emotions Under Control
A surprisingly important part of baccarat is emotional control.
For example, with the Paroli system starting at $1, your seventh bet is $64, and seven consecutive wins bring your balance to $128. At that point, you may be tempted to quit even though you have not yet reached the number of wins or the profit you set, and miss out on profit you would otherwise have made.
Once you start thinking “if only I had done things differently,” your plan can fall apart from there. That is why the discipline to always stick to what you decided is so important.
It also helps to build a habit of reviewing whether you played correctly and then moving on, for example by keeping a record after each session or stopping for the day after a loss. This makes it easier to keep your emotions under control.
How Pro-Level Baccarat Players Reset When They Are Not Winning
Even pro-level baccarat players do not win all the time. Sometimes they lose heavily.
What matters here is deciding in advance how you will change course. Rather than switching from one approach to another during play, decide beforehand which approach you will try that day.
None of the changes described below affects your chance of winning or the house edge, because the result of each hand is independent. They are all ways to reset your mindset and rebuild your betting approach.
Review the Road Patterns You Follow and Change How You Bet
It is not unusual to bet according to the roads and keep losing.
A streak of 10 or more wins may end the moment you bet on it, a Ping Pong pattern may suddenly turn into a streak, or you may bet Player, Banker, Player and see the results come in the opposite order for three losses in a row. Because the result of each hand is independent, situations like these are bound to happen.
When they do, try changing the road you follow. For example, look at the Big Eye Boy or Small Road instead of the Big Road, ignore the roads entirely and bet only on the Banker hand, or keep betting as if the pattern were Ping Pong.
Switch to a Different Betting System
If you are using the Paroli system but cannot string wins together, or the Martingale system keeps taking you to your loss limit quickly, try switching to a different betting system.
The house edge per unit bet is the same with every system (for the same total amount wagered, the theoretical loss is the same), so choose based on what you value most, such as the chance of a big win during a winning streak or a bankroll that shrinks more slowly over long sessions.
Move to Another Table or Try a Different Type of Baccarat
Playing at a table other than your usual one is another option. If you have been playing Speed Baccarat, for example, switch to standard baccarat or try Baccarat Squeeze.
A change of environment also makes it easier to reset your mindset: if you have been playing Evolution’s baccarat, for example, move to a table from Pragmatic Play Live or Playtech Live, or try No Commission Baccarat.
Special baccarat games with multipliers, however, have different payout structures and house edges from the standard rules. Because the swings in your balance per hand change considerably, the loss and win limits you set will not work as intended for your betting system. If bankroll management is at the center of your approach, stick to baccarat with standard rules.
Change Your Bet Size
When your usual approach is not working, changing your bet size is another option. There are many ways to do this, such as raising the starting bet of the Paroli system from $5 to $10, or lowering the unit of the Monte Carlo system from $1 to $0.50 (which lowers the first bet from $4 to $2).
Keep in mind, though, that changing your bet size has a large effect on your results. Raising it can make your losses grow, and lowering it can leave you feeling short-changed if a winning streak follows.
Feel free to move your bet size around to some extent, on the understanding that you will return to your original bet once you have reset your mindset.
Frequently Asked Questions About How Baccarat Pros Bet
- What do baccarat pros avoid, and what do they pay attention to?
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Baccarat pros avoid bets with no real basis and emotional play, and they manage their bankroll strictly and calmly. Another important habit is not letting the previous result sway them, and not raising their bet on impulse after a losing streak to win back their losses; if they use a system that raises bets after losses, they fix the unit and the stop-loss in advance.
They also understand the commission and the house edge, and they do not bet casually on side bets with a low RTP. They keep the rules and their remaining bankroll in mind at all times and try to make decisions that are not driven by short-term results.
Summary: No Pro Keeps Winning, but You Can Play to Avoid Heavy Losses
Baccarat is not a game in which professionals can make a living the way they can in poker, but there are experienced players who have learned how to play without losing heavily.
A winning stretch of a few months to a year does not make someone a pro. Approach baccarat with one question in mind: can you keep your bankroll intact over a span of 5 or 10 years?
Experienced players combine the roads, betting systems, emotional control and bankroll management when they play baccarat. Mastering all of these at once is difficult, so start with the most important point: never lose your entire bankroll at baccarat.
If you play in a way that keeps your bankroll intact, you can enjoy baccarat for a long time while keeping your losses down.
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Bell | Editor of Online Casino Winners Club. Since the site launched in 2003, Bell has written guides to casino game rules, tested betting systems and covered land-based casinos around the world, and still plays the games before writing about them. Bell's core advice: choose the bets with the lowest house edge, and decide in advance how much you are prepared to lose.