Paroli Betting System: How It Works, Risks and Test Results

The Paroli system (also called the reverse Martingale) is a betting system in which you double your bet after each win, so your winnings grow quickly during a winning streak.

You need winning streaks to make a profit with it. While a streak lasts, winnings build up in a short time, but a single loss wipes out everything you have won up to that point, so results swing widely.

The Martingale system raises the bet after a loss, while the Paroli system raises it after a win, which is why it is known as the reverse Martingale or anti-Martingale.

What You Will Learn

• The Paroli system doubles the bet after each win, and its results swing widely.
• The probability of winning 4 in a row is 6.25%, and of winning 10 in a row 0.10%. Ten straight wins return 1,024 times your starting bet.

This article takes about 16 minutes to read.

How to Use the Paroli System

The steps are simple, so try to picture yourself placing real bets as you read.

We have also included a simulation that uses the Paroli system.

Choosing a Game for the Paroli System

Start by choosing a casino game. Pick a bet that pays 1 to 1, such as red/black, odd/even or high/low in roulette, or the Player bet in baccarat; a $10 bet wins $10. Bets that pay 2 to 1, such as the dozen and column bets in roulette, also work.

The Banker bet in baccarat does not pay a full 1 to 1, and blackjack is not suitable because a hand may involve doubling down or splitting, so the stake and payout are not fixed.

The Basic Steps

The Paroli system comes down to three steps.

1. Place your first bet
2. Double your bet after each win
3. Decide when to lock in your profit

In this example, the first bet is $1, but you can change the starting amount to suit the profit you are aiming for. Because the bet doubles with every consecutive win, we do not recommend starting with a large bet.

Step 1: Place Your First Bet

Place your first bet. If it loses, reset and bet the same $1 on the next round. If it wins, double your bet to $2 on the second round.

If you chose a bet that pays 2 to 1, triple your bet instead. Wherever the explanation below says “double,” read “triple.”

In short, the basic idea of the Paroli system is that after a win you let the entire return from the previous round, your original bet plus the winnings, ride on the next round.

If a round loses, the Paroli sequence has failed. Go back to the start and lower your bet to the starting amount.

Step 2: Double Your Bet After Each Win

If you win again, double your bet again to $4. Keep raising the bet with each consecutive win: $1 → $2 → $4 → $8 → $16 and so on.

Step 3: Decide When to Lock In Your Profit

Your profit keeps growing for as long as the streak continues, but unlike the Martingale system and some other betting systems, the Paroli system has no built-in point at which a sequence ends.

You have to decide for yourself when to lock in your profit.

Decide how many wins in a row you will aim for, and lock in your profit at the point you prefer. The winnings and the probability of success for each streak length are covered later.

Casino Games That Work Well with the Paroli System

The Paroli system requires a game that pays fixed odds when you win. For this reason, table games are the better fit.

In roulette, the dozen and column bets pay 2 to 1, and red, black, odd, even, high and low pay 1 to 1, so you can use any of them with the Paroli system.

In baccarat, the Player bet pays 1 to 1, which makes it easy to use. On the Banker bet, a 5% commission is deducted from winnings, so it pays 0.95 to 1 (19 to 20) and a $10 bet wins $9.50; for this reason, players usually choose the Player bet. The Banker bet can also be used in no-commission baccarat, but because a Banker win on 6 pays half (1 to 2, so a $10 bet wins $5), the house edge on the Banker bet rises from about 1.06% to about 1.46%.

Blackjack is hard to use with this system because a hand can return more than double your bet. In other games, choose bets whose payout is fixed at 1 to 1 or 2 to 1, such as Big/Small in Sic Bo.

The same steps also work in live dealer games such as live baccarat and live roulette. Many table games offer a free demo, so it is a good idea to run through the steps without risking money first.

Paroli System Example and Simulation Results

Starting bet of $1, 10 rounds, betting on red in roulette, with the last round lost

With 8 wins and 2 losses, this run went quite well. Even so, ending on a loss wipes out all the profit made up to that point and leaves the session in the red, which is typical of the Paroli system.

As a streak grows, the amount you lose on a single loss grows at the same pace, so extending your streaks does not improve your average results.

You Need Winning Streaks to Profit with the Paroli System

Betting systems differ in whether they put more weight on how often you win or on how much you win when you do. Systems that build a profit gradually by recovering losses show a profit more often, even when wins and losses alternate.

The Paroli system puts the size of each win first, so alternating wins and losses do not produce a profit. To make money with it, you need winning streaks.

With a $1 starting bet, 4 wins in a row bring a profit of $15, 5 wins $31, 7 wins $127 and 10 wins $1,023. A single loss at any point during the streak, however, always leaves you $1 down.

Keep in mind that this system succeeds only rarely, and play with a bankroll you can comfortably afford.

The Probability of Winning Streaks at a 50% Win Rate

The table shows the probability of consecutive wins, assuming a win rate of exactly 50%. In practice, the house edge pushes the win rate below 50%: red/black in European roulette wins 18 times in 37, about 48.65%, and the Player bet in baccarat wins about 49.32% of the time, excluding ties. The real chance of a streak is therefore lower than the figures in the table.

The probability falls sharply as a streak grows, from 6.25% for 4 wins in a row to 0.10% for 10. How to decide the streak length at which you reset is covered in the next section.

When to Stop a Paroli Sequence (When to Reset)

The Paroli system does not change a game’s expected value or house edge. The only thing it changes is the size of the swings in your results (the variance). It reshapes the distribution of your results, accepting many small losses in exchange for a small chance of a large win.

For this reason, setting a stopping point does not improve your win rate or expected value. It is a money management rule that lets you decide how much money can change hands in a single session.

Unlike other betting systems, the Paroli system leaves it to you to decide where to lock in your profit. This gives you flexibility, but because there is no clear benchmark, it also makes the decision harder.

The winnings keep doubling for as long as the streak continues, so the decision on when to step away is yours alone. Even if you have decided not to reset until you reach 10 wins in a row, once the streak reaches 7 or 8 wins you will be tempted to lock in your profit there.

Sticking to the streak length you set is what separates running the Paroli system as planned from improvising. Play with a bankroll you can comfortably afford so that you do not run your balance down too far.

With a low starting bet

A low starting bet makes it easy to see how quickly the return multiplies as a streak grows. As mentioned above, 10 wins in a row from a $1 start return $1,024.

With a high starting bet

You can make a large profit without such long streaks. A return of $1,000 takes 7 wins in a row from a $10 start ($1,280), or 3 from a $125 start ($1,000). Your profit is that amount minus your starting bet. Choose the streak length and the starting bet according to your bankroll.

Advantages of the Paroli System

The Paroli system gives up frequent wins in exchange for larger payouts on winning streaks. This trade-off is both its defining feature and its main weakness.

A Simple System Anyone Can Understand

The Paroli system shares one feature with the Martingale system: the rules are simple, and even new players can follow the steps easily.

After a win, you double your bet on the next round, and after a loss, you go back to your starting bet. Compared with systems such as the Monte Carlo system, which requires you to track a number sequence with pen and paper, there is almost nothing to memorize.

Many live dealer games now also have a button that doubles your previous bet, so placing the bets takes little effort.

This simplicity is the reason the system is so widely used.

Winnings Grow Quickly During a Streak

Because the full return from each win goes into the next bet, your winnings grow quickly when you string several wins together.

The aggressive betting may look as if it risks large losses, but only your starting bet comes out of your own bankroll. When the streak ends, however, you lose all the winnings accumulated up to that point, and the chance of walking away with a profit is correspondingly lower.

Disadvantages of the Paroli System

The Paroli system is the exact reverse of the Martingale system, so its drawbacks are easiest to understand as the opposite of the Martingale’s.

The main drawback is that it offers a lower chance of ending with a profit than other betting systems. You can adjust this to some extent through the streak length at which you reset.

A Single Loss Wipes Out Your Profit

No matter how many wins you string together, the next loss takes away all of your profit.

A common pattern, especially among new players, is to keep using the Paroli system without a stopping point because they are unsure when to quit, and to lose their winnings as a result.

As explained above, it is important to stick to the streak length at which you reset. Even if black comes up 10 times in a row, or the Player and Banker hands win alternately five times, the chance of black on the next spin, or of a Player win on the next hand, stays the same.

Table Limits Cap How Much You Can Bet

For example, if you start the Paroli system with $1, 20 wins in a row would in theory bring a profit of over $1 million.

That, however, assumes you can place a bet of more than $500,000 on the 20th round. In real casino games, a maximum bet called the table limit is set to prevent exactly this.

Limits vary by casino and game, but many are set at around $100–$200, so you may reach the limit quickly.

With a $100 limit, for example, betting $1 on the first round, $2 on the second and so on brings you to $64 on the 7th round. On the 8th round you would want to double that, but $128 is over the limit, so you cannot place the bet and the sequence ends there.

The maximum bet is shown in the game, so always check it before you play.

You can also turn the idea of a limit around and use it to keep your Paroli losses down. If you keep using the system when your bankroll is tight, you will eventually run out of money, so setting a realistic limit of your own to protect your bankroll is another way to play the Paroli system.

Ways to Modify the Paroli System

The Paroli system works on its own, but combining it with another betting method changes the pattern of your wins and losses. No combination, however, changes the expected value or the house edge.

This section looks at a variation that combines it with the Martingale system. A more aggressive Paroli variant is covered in the next section.

Combining the Paroli and Martingale Systems

The Martingale system doubles your bet after each loss, so a single win recovers all the losses up to that point.

It is a simple betting system and the exact opposite of the Paroli system, which is also called the reverse Martingale. When you combine the two, the Martingale side handles the losing runs that occur during Paroli play.

For how to use the Martingale system on its own, see the related article below.

An Example of the Paroli and Martingale Combination

The method is straightforward: use the Paroli system if your first bet wins and the Martingale system if it loses.

While you keep winning, the Paroli system builds your profit. When losses pile up, you switch to the Martingale system, which recovers all of them as soon as you win.

Once the Martingale sequence succeeds, you switch back to the Paroli system and lock in your profit when you reach your target streak length.

On the losing side, however, the Martingale system doubles your bet each time, so the money you need grows rapidly. Starting at $5, the total loss after n losses in a row is $5 × (2^n − 1): $315 after 6 losses and $1,275 after 8, with the next bet at $1,280.

Table limits and your bankroll are finite, so at some point you will no longer be able to double after a loss. When you reach that ceiling, the losses accumulated up to then are locked in.

Before using this combination, decide in advance how much you can afford to lose and when you will stop.

Simulation combining the Paroli and Martingale systems

We ran the test under the following conditions.

• Bankroll: $1,000
• Starting bet: $5
• A game with a 50% win probability
• Bets pay 1 to 1
• Reset the bet after 5 wins in a row with the Paroli system
• Stop once the profit reaches $100 or more

We played Evolution’s Speed Roulette and bet on red or black, which pays 1 to 1. This test assumes a table that accepts a $320 bet on the 7th round. At a table with a $200 maximum bet, you could not place the 7th bet of $320 after 6 losses in a row, and you would be left with the $315 loss. At a table with a $100 maximum, you could not place the 6th bet of $160 after 5 losses in a row, and you would be left with the $155 loss.

Using the Paroli and Martingale combination, we finished with a profit of $155. Since this exceeded our $100 target, we ended the test.

At one point the bankroll dropped sharply, but the successful Martingale sequence recovered the losses.

With the Paroli system alone, those 6 losses in a row would have left us $30 down, and a single win would not have recovered it. This is only the result of one trial, though. If the Martingale side runs into a long losing streak, the losses grow very quickly.

Advantages and Disadvantages of Combining It with the Martingale System

The advantages and drawbacks of combining the Paroli and Martingale systems are as follows.

Advantages

• If the Martingale side wins, you recover all the losses up to that point at once
• You can aim for a large profit during a winning streak

Disadvantages

• Unless a Paroli sequence succeeds, your balance grows only slowly
• If a Martingale sequence fails, you lose a large amount at once

When you combine the two systems, bet less than you usually would and reset the bet at your chosen Paroli streak length. Above all, you need careful money management and control over your emotions.

A More Aggressive Paroli Variant: Double Plus One Unit

There is also a more aggressive variant of the Paroli system that makes the swings in your results even larger. As in the standard Paroli system, you raise your bet after each win, but here you double the bet and add one base unit (your starting bet).

An Example of the Double-Plus-One-Unit Variant

For example, if your base unit is $1 and you win, your next bet is $2 + $1, or $3.

A winning streak can turn a small starting bet into a large payout, but a single loss takes away your profit and the extra units you added.

For this reason, it matters even more than with the standard Paroli system to decide in advance the streak length at which you reset and the stop-loss limit at which you quit.

Simulation of the double-plus-one-unit variant

We ran the test under the following conditions.

• Bankroll: $1,000
• Starting bet: $1
• After each win, double the bet and add the $1 starting bet
• A game with a 50% win probability
• Bets pay 1 to 1
• Reset the bet after 5 wins in a row with this variant
• Stop once the profit reaches $100 or more

We played Evolution’s live baccarat and bet only on the Player bet, which pays 1 to 1.

As explained above, the Banker bet pays 0.95 to 1 (19 to 20) because of the 5% commission, so a $10 bet wins $9.50; this is why players usually choose the Player bet. In no-commission baccarat, a Banker win on 6 pays half (1 to 2), so, as noted above, the house edge on the Banker bet rises to about 1.46%.

We lost on the 7th round and had to reset the bet once, but after 12 rounds with this variant we finished with a profit of $112.

Advantages and Disadvantages of the Double-Plus-One-Unit Variant

Advantages

• The same as the Paroli system (simple steps; winnings grow quickly during a streak)

Disadvantages

• A single loss takes away all your profit up to that point, together with the extra units you added
• When wins and losses alternate, the added unit makes your balance shrink faster than with the standard Paroli system

Frequently Asked Questions and Facts About the Paroli System

Does the Paroli system guarantee that I will win?

No method guarantees a win in gambling, and the Paroli system is no exception. Using it does not mean you will win.

One cognitive bias that applies here is the hot-hand fallacy: the belief that after a run of successes in a random process, the next attempts are likely to succeed as well. Examples include the same color coming up several times in a row in roulette, or a distinctive pattern appearing on the baccarat scoreboard.

This misconception is especially common among players who are new to table games. Each round of a table game is an independent event, so in principle you cannot predict the next result from past results. (Strictly speaking, games dealt from cards are not fully independent, but since we cannot use this to predict the next card, they can be treated as essentially independent.)

Using a betting system also does not change the probability of winning each round or the expected value of the game itself.

Summary: The Paroli System Widens the Swings Without Changing the Expected Value

The Paroli system (the reverse Martingale) requires no record keeping and has simple steps, which is why it is such a widely used betting system.

The only money that comes out of your own bankroll is the starting bet you set. Each time a winning streak ends, though, the profit you have built up goes back to zero. Risking only your starting bet is not the same as having an edge: the expected value and the house edge do not change.

The longer the streak you aim for, the lower the chance that it succeeds. Using this system starts with deciding in advance how many wins in a row you will play for, then resetting without exception once you reach that number.